Core concepts核心概念
The desk投研团队
Every role on the team, what it reads and what it writes.团队里的每个角色：读什么，写什么。
How the desk is organised团队如何分工
The desk has 5 teams, and a report reads in the order they speak: analyst team, research team, trader, risk team, portfolio manager. Every analyst writes one report. Both debates — bull against bear, and the three-way risk debate — argue from those reports, and the two managers reread the key ones themselves rather than trusting a debate to have quoted them.
Each seat's name below is the heading its turn carries in the report, and its colour is the one the report page and the PDF use for it.
投研台由 5 个团队组成，报告按它们的发言顺序排列：分析师团队、研究团队、交易员、风险管理团队、投资组合经理。每位分析师写一份报告；两场辩论——多空辩论和三方风险辩论——都以这些报告为依据；两位主管还会亲自重读其中的关键报告，而不是指望辩论中已经有人引用过。
下面每个席位的名称，就是它在报告中那一轮发言的标题；它的颜色，也与报告页面和 PDF 中使用的颜色一致。
Quality and valuation: two questions, two seats质量与估值：两个问题，两个席位
Until 30 August 2026 a single fundamentals analyst covered the company's books. It was split in two because “is this a good business?” and “is this a good price?” are different questions — the distinction Buffett and Munger draw — and one generic report kept blurring them: a fine business can still be an expensive stock.
- Quality works from returns, margins, leverage, liquidity and cash generation, and how steady margins have been over several years.
- Valuation works from trailing and forward P/E, PEG, price-to-book and dividend yield.
Both are built like the earnings analyst, which joined the desk on 19 September 2026: code fetches the evidence, computes every figure and assigns the tier, and the model may only add judgement around it — a moat assessment and red flags; what the valuation tier means and what could re-rate the multiple — without restating, rounding or correcting a single number. Reports written before the split still show their Fundamentals Analyst turn.
2026 年 8 月 30 日之前，公司的财务状况由一位基本面分析师统一负责。之后它被拆成两个席位，因为“这是不是一门好生意？”和“这是不是一个好价格？”是两个不同的问题——这正是巴菲特和芒格所强调的区分——而一份笼统的报告总是把两者混在一起：好公司的股票，照样可能很贵。
- 质量依据回报率、利润率、杠杆、流动性与现金创造能力，以及多年来利润率是否稳定。
- 估值依据滚动市盈率与预期市盈率、PEG、市净率和股息率。
两者的构造与 2026 年 9 月 19 日加入团队的盈利分析师相同：证据由代码获取，每一个数字由代码计算，评级档位也由代码给出；模型只能在此基础上补充判断——护城河评估与风险警示，或者估值档位意味着什么、哪些因素可能让估值倍数重估——不得复述、四舍五入或修改任何一个数字。拆分之前的旧报告里，仍然保留着基本面分析师的发言。
Every seat每一个席位
Grouped by team, in the order a report is read.
按团队分组，顺序与阅读报告的顺序一致。
Analyst team分析师团队
Reads the price history up to the run's date and picks up to eight complementary indicators — moving averages, MACD, RSI, Bollinger bands, ATR — to describe trend, momentum and volatility.
读取截至分析日期的价格历史，从均线、MACD、RSI、布林带、ATR 等指标中挑选最多八个互补的指标，描述趋势、动量与波动。
Weighs a week of headlines against retail chatter — for US listings, StockTwits and Reddit (r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, r/investing) — and treats a gap between the two as a signal in itself.
把一周的新闻标题与散户讨论放在一起比较——美股使用 StockTwits 和 Reddit（r/wallstreetbets、r/stocks、r/investing）——并把两者之间的分歧本身视为一种信号。
Covers the past week of company and world news, grounded in FRED macro series and prediction-market odds for the events ahead.
梳理过去一周的公司新闻与全球新闻，并以 FRED 宏观数据和预测市场对未来事件的定价作为依据。
Tracks consensus estimates and how they have been revised, and the company's record of surprises. The figures are computed by code; the analyst only interprets them.
跟踪一致预期及其修正轨迹，以及公司过往的业绩超预期记录。数字由代码计算，分析师只负责解读。
Answers only “is this a good business” — margins, returns, cash conversion and balance sheet — then adds a moat assessment and red flags to numbers code has already scored.
只回答“这是不是一门好生意”——利润率、回报率、现金转化与资产负债表——在代码已经打好分的数字之上，补充护城河评估与风险警示。
Answers only “is this a good price”, separately from whether it is a good business: code prices it, and the analyst explains what the price assumes.
只回答“这是不是一个好价格”，与“是不是好生意”分开讨论：由代码完成定价，分析师解释这个价格隐含了什么假设。
Traces monetary, fiscal, CSRC and industrial policy through sector to company, separating announced policy from speculation.
沿“政策 → 行业 → 公司”的链条，追踪货币、财政、证监会与产业政策的影响，并区分已发布的政策与市场猜测。
Follows Dragon-Tiger List seats, main-capital and northbound flow, limit-up behaviour and theme rotation — keeping verified seat data apart from inference.
跟踪龙虎榜席位、主力与北向资金、涨停行为和题材轮动，并把已核实的席位数据与推断严格分开。
Watches the next 90 days of restricted-share unlocks against the float, plus announced reductions and pledges — an unlock is potential supply, not proof of selling.
关注未来 90 天限售股解禁相对流通盘的规模，以及已公告的减持与质押——解禁只是潜在供给，并不等于一定会卖出。
Research team研究团队
Builds the strongest case for owning it from the analysts' reports, and answers the bear point by point.
以分析师报告为依据，构建持有它的最强论据，并逐条回应看跌研究员。
Builds the strongest case against, from the same reports, and answers the bull point by point.
基于同样的报告，构建反对持有的最强论据，并逐条回应看涨研究员。
Judges the debate and hands the trader an investment plan with a rating.
裁决多空辩论，并向交易员交付一份附带评级的投资计划。
Trader交易员
Turns the plan into a concrete proposal — a direction, an entry and a stop stated as prices, and a position size.
把投资计划变成具体方案——方向、以价格表示的入场位与止损位，以及仓位大小。
Risk team风险管理团队
Argues the plan is too timid, and where taking more risk would be rewarded.
认为方案过于保守，并指出承担更多风险会在哪里得到回报。
Argues the plan is too bold: what could go wrong, and how badly.
认为方案过于激进：可能出什么问题，以及会糟到什么程度。
Weighs both against the evidence and pushes for the balanced version.
依据证据权衡双方观点，推动形成更平衡的方案。
Portfolio manager投资组合经理
Reads everything and signs the final call — exactly one of Buy, Overweight, Hold, Underweight or Sell — with the levels and sizing.
通读全部内容后签发最终结论——买入、增持、持有、减持、卖出五选一——并给出价位与仓位。
Who reads what谁读什么、写什么
| Seat | Reads | Writes |
|---|---|---|
| Analysts | Their own data tools, dated to the run | One report each |
| Bull and bear researchers | Every analyst report, and the debate so far | Alternating arguments |
| Research manager | The debate, plus the earnings, quality, valuation and A-share reports directly | A rating and an investment plan |
| Trader | The plan, the market report, the earnings, quality and valuation reports, and the context notes | A direction, price levels and a size |
| Risk team | The proposal, every analyst report, the context notes and any portfolio-limit ruling | A three-way debate |
| Portfolio manager | The plan, the proposal, the risk debate, the numeric reports, the context notes and lessons from earlier calls | The signed rating |
The context notes — market regime, relative strength and your own portfolio — are described in How a run works.
| 席位 | 读什么 | 写什么 |
|---|---|---|
| 分析师 | 各自的数据工具，以分析日期为准 | 各写一份报告 |
| 看涨与看跌研究员 | 全部分析师报告，以及此前的辩论 | 轮流发言的论点 |
| 研究主管 | 辩论内容，并直接读取盈利、质量、估值与 A 股专项报告 | 评级与投资计划 |
| 交易员 | 投资计划、市场报告，盈利、质量、估值报告，以及背景信息 | 方向、价位与仓位 |
| 风险团队 | 交易方案、全部分析师报告、背景信息，以及组合上限检查的裁定（如有） | 三方辩论 |
| 投资组合经理 | 投资计划、交易方案、风险辩论、几份量化报告、背景信息，以及过往判断的经验 | 签发的最终评级 |
背景信息——市场环境、相对强弱以及你自己的持仓——的说明见一次分析如何运作。