Prediction Markets
What Polymarket and Kalshi traders are pricing for the events that move markets — the Fed, inflation, jobs, growth, stocks, IPOs, commodities and crypto.
Odds as of Oct 08, 2026 08:55 · ↻ Refresh
Fetching odds from Polymarket and Kalshi…
The Fed, three ways
Each upcoming FOMC decision as the Fed Funds futures, Polymarket and Kalshi price it — the decision at that meeting, not the cumulative path shown on Interest Rates.
Futures carry only an expected rate, so their odds name two outcomes per meeting: the expected move split between the 25bp steps either side of it, as CME's FedWatch does. The venues price every outcome, tails included. Venue odds are normalised to 100% (hover a row for the sum of the quoted prices), and the expected move counts a 50bp-or-more outcome as exactly 50bp.
Biggest moves today
The outcome that moved most in each market over the past day, among markets with at least $5k traded.
Markets
The busiest open markets on the events this site covers, no more than fifteen from any one topic. Titles and outcomes are as each venue publishes them.
No markets match these filters.
AI read track record
Every AI read is written down with the market's price at that moment and scored when the market resolves, by the Brier score: the mean squared error of the probabilities, so lower is better. 0 is perfect; always answering 50% scores 0.25.
How to read this page
- A price is the crowd's odds, not a certainty: a contract at 82¢ is a market pricing an 82% chance, before fees and the spread.
- Liquidity decides whether a gap is real. A large disagreement in a thin market can vanish the moment anyone trades it, so check the volume and depth on each card.
- Futures and prediction markets answer the Fed question differently: the futures price an average rate, the venues price discrete outcomes, and the gap between them is information about the tails.
- An AI read is an input to your own estimate, not an order ticket. It sits beside the price so the gap is visible, and it is recorded so that, over time, the record says whether it was worth reading.
Sources: Polymarket Gamma API · Kalshi API · CME ZQ futures via Yahoo Finance. Not affiliated with any venue. Not financial advice.
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